Background

Microsoft is expected to launch a Windows 8 tablet later in 2012. As the differentiating factor versus the current market leader, Apple's iPad, the tablet will come pre-installed with Microsoft Office.

Recently, a Morgan Stanley analyst opined that the new Windows tablet will overtake Android's tablet sales rapidly and become the #2 in the tablet market, as the strategic inclusion of MS Office would attract significant first buyers from the business segment. Morgan Stanley expects future tablet market shares as follows: Apple 46%, Microsoft 25%, Android 22% and all others combined 7%.

Analysis

Comparative developments in the smartphone sector

The smartphone segment has seen a race between Android, iOS and Windows before, with a rather different outcome:

Enter iOS -- In the beginning of 2007, iOS entered the smartphone market with the Apple iPhone. At this point, Symbian and RIM have a combined market share of approximately 80%, with Windows playing a minor role at 12%.

Enter Android -- In the third quarter of 2008, i.e. 18 months later, Android enters the race. By this time iOS had reached a market share of 13%, mostly at the expense of Symbian. In only two years, by the third quarter of 2010, Android was able to overtake iOS the latter still growing but at a slower pace. MS Windows already suffering a market share erosion ton to 11%.

Result -- By Q1 2012, Android again more than doubled its market share, reaching approximately 60%. The OS effectively wiped out Symbian, RIM and Windows. Hence Window’s tight integration of MS Outlook did nothing to avoid market share plummetting to 2%.