Will the Playstation 4 or the Xbox One sell more consoles worldwide by March 29th, 2014?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
As determined by hardware sales numbers posted by VGChartz.com during the period starting October of 2013 through the week ending March 29th, 2014.
Reference date: March 31, 2014, 24:00 MDT

Answer options

Widget Price
● Sony Playstation 4
88.37 %
● Microsoft Xbox One
11.62 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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PS 4 and Xbox ONE

The next generation console race

The race between Sony and Microsoft for dominance with next generation consoles is drawing more and more spectators. Ultimately. the consumer will decide with his wallet, but this Prediki takes a look at the likely impact of the opponents' tactical moves.

Stage one: Xmas 2013

Timewise, the race is very close. The first leg of the race is for maximum sales in the 2013 Xmas season. Microsoft and Sony announced that their next console generation will be launched almost concurrently: Xbox One (XO) on Friday, November 22 in the UK and 13 more countries. PlayStation 4 (PS4) will launch one week earlier than that in North America and one week later in Europe. [1]

Differentiators

The two consoles' differences are listed in a table at the bottom of this Prediki - a brief discussion of their likely impact follows here:

  • Kinect should make a difference in favour of the Xbox. (Specifically how??)
  • Second screen mode -- Both contestants are developing companion apps for gamers' tablets and smartphones. The PS4's Vita offers full game streaming to second devices with hundreds of game titles and support for tablets whereas the Xbox Smartglass app lafs behind with a rather limited functonality. [8]

Opinion polls

September 29, 2013: A poll by Reuters/Ipsos shows PS4 (26%) ahead of Xbox One (16%) when asking consumers for their expected purchase preference. [6]

Experts changing opinion

Industry analyst Michael Pachter sees PS4 ahead for the start citing supply issues with Xbox. [5] But just a few months before, the same Michael Pachter predicted precisely the opposite: that Xbox will outsell PS4, due to the Xbox's TV tuner and Skype functionality [7] allegedly "sticking his neck out" with his predicting.

Retailer opinions

High-street retailer John Lewis included the Xbox One on the second spot of its 2013 Xmas list, and expects it to outsell PS4 based on the new Kinect and two games: Halo and Forza 5. [9]

Tables

Hardware differences

See also:

DifferencesPS4XOComment
PriceUS$400US$500PS4 is 20% cheaper
CPUAMD Jaguar, 8 coresAMD Jaguar, 8 cores
RAM8GB GDDR5 5500mhz8GB DDR3 2133mhz
plus 32MB eSRAM		?
GPU1152 ATI logic cores768 ATI logic cores
Memory Bandwidth176GBps68.3GBps
Camera1280x800 (optional-$60)1920x1080 time-of-flight, infrared (included)

Software differences

Both PS4 and Xbox One now seem to lack backwards compatibility with prior generation games except through digital repurchase. Hence, the availability (or lack) of certain new game might influence the purchase decision. This needs an estimate of the attractiveness of each console's exclusive games.

Exclusive Games PS4Exclusive Games XO
Binding of Issac: Rebirth, Deep Down, DriveClub, Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, Galak-Z: The Dimensional, Guilty Gear Xrd -SIGN-, Guns of Icarus, Helldivers, Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number, inFamous: Second Son, Killzone: Shadow Fall, Knack, N++, Natural Doctrine, Octodad: Deadliest Catch, The Order: 1886, Rime, Rogue Legacy, TimeSplitters Rewind, Shadow of the Beast, Volume, War Thunder, Wasteland Kings, Wonder Flick, Yakuza Ishin;Below, Cobalt, Crimson Dragon, D4, Dead Rising 3, Fable Legends, Fighter Within, Forza Motorsport 5, Halo 5, Killer Instinct, Kinect Sports: Rivals, Quantum Break, Peggle 2, Powerstar Golf, Project Spark, Rabbids Invasion, RYSE: Son of Rome, Sunset Overdrive, Zumba Fitness: World Party, Untitled Black Tusk Game
  1. Xbox One release date - Metro, 4 September 2013
  2. PS4 vs. Xbox One vs. Wii U Comparison Chart - IGN
  3. PS4 vs. Xbox One Games - IGN
  4. Xbox One Hardware & Analysis: Comparison to Playstation 4 - Anandtech, 22 May 2013
  5. Michael Pachter Reckons That the PS4 Will Outsell the Xbox One at Launch - PushSquare, 29 September 2013
  6. Sony's PS4 tops Xbox One as gamers' holiday choice . Reuters, 29 Sep 20
  7. Pachter Predicts PlayStation 4 Will Get Outsold By Next Xbox - Push, 10 Mar 2013
  8. PS4′s second screen functionality trounces Xbox One’s SmartGlass - ExtremeTech, 3 Oct 2013
  9. A John Lewis Christmas has no room for a Sony PS4 - The Inquirer, 9 Oct 2014

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