Will the "Lockdown" quarantine policy of China in Q1 2020 turn out to be effective?

Follow |   15
Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
The question will be judged at year end 2020: "Success", if the number of new deaths subsequent to China's declaration of victory on 10 March 2020 remains below the number of recorded deaths before that date. "Partially successful" if the number is exceeded but below the next level "Probably ineffective" if the numbers of deaths per 100.000 reach 50% of that in "Herd Immunisation"countries already in 2020. "Ineffective" if the numbers of deaths per 100.000 exceed that in "Herd Immunisation"countries already in 2020.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2020, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
● Ineffective policy
18.52 %
● Probably ineffective
10.51 %
● Partially successful
50.18 %
● Successful policy
20.76 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Background: China's Lockdown Policy

Xi Jinping’s trip to Wuhan (Thumbnail) - Copyright: XinhuaOn 10 March 2020, the Chinese government declared victory over the Coronavirus, as the number of infections fell to only 17 per day. The death toll as of that day reached 3140 [2].

If the epidemy flares up again this could have been a premature self-celebration of the responsible government. Most importantly: If lockdown turns out not effective first time round, why should it fare differently the second time?

Herd Immunisation Policy

The United Kingdom announced a very different policy to China. The UK government assumes that the virus will return year after year. They intends to use a "herd immunisation" policy to reduce the speed of the spread of COVID-19. [3] The theory behind the policy: people of working age should contract and with their very high likelyhood recover from the virus.

As a consequence, the risk and speed of spread to the more endangered eldery population will be lowered. Further, the demage to the economy and therefor the supply of the population with food and goods will keep up better than with a lockdown policy.

Prediction

Will the Chinese policy have been successful in battling the outbreak or not, when we look at it at coming year end 2020?

Sources

  1. "Coronavirus: China trumpets message of stability amid world turmoil as Beijing senses Covid-19 victory" - South China News, 10 March 2020
  2. WHO Coronavirus Situation Report, 10 March 2020
  3. "Britain goes it alone over coronavirus" - The Guardian, 15 March 2020

 

Topics

Assign
  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. Bernd Somitsch 24,901.57
2. zhijuan wu 24,018.19
3. Regan Dempsey -300.00
4. Dean Szentes -1,000.00
5. Sabrine Poulson -2,279.20
Photo Hubertus Hofkirchner
Question owner:
Hubertus Hofkirchner
  • 1,883 Views
  • 9 Messages
  • 16 Transactions
This question has 15 followers