Will US airports see large crowds before a COVID-19 vaccine, and when?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
The question will be judged by the month (or the period with such month) when US airports reach 80% of the average monthly number of passengers in the year before the pandemic. This question also ends if a vaccine becomes available for mass inoculation prior to reaching such level.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2022, 24:00 PST

Answer options

Widget Price
● Oct. - Dec. (Q4) 2020
8.28 %
● Jan. - Jun. (H1) 2021
27.37 %
● Jul. - Dec. (H2) 2021
26.04 %
● In 2022
8.28 %
● In 2023 or later
8.28 %
● Only after vaccination
21.71 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

Edit

Bill predicts in The Economist:

Filled Airport - Copyright: Airport-Technology|Credit: Citizen59"I believe that humanity will beat this pandemic, but only when most of the population is vaccinated. Until then, life will not return to normal. [...] Airports won’t have large crowds." [1]

Prediki definition:

We define 'large crowds' as at least 80% of capacity prior to the pandemic. We also define in favour of Bill that such vaccine must just be available, irrespective of whether people choose to vaccinate.

Bill invests:

  • 10,000 Cr in 'Only after vaccination'

Monthly passengers on US airlines [2]

US passenger numbers by month - Copyright: United States Department of Transportation

Sources

[1] The Economist - "The world after covid-19. Bill Gates on how to fight future pandemics" by Bill Gates. 23 Apr. 2020

[2] Bureau of Transportation Statistic Releases - "September 2020 U.S. Airline Traffic Data"

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Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. Bill Gates-Avatar 50,363.10
2. Onn Wei 24,854.16
3. brian Lee -4,502.11
4. Benson Wilson -5,593.61
5. Asmadi Muhamed Redin -8,522.17
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Question owner:
Bill Gates-Avatar
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