Will Tesla be overtaken by the Germans? Which rank will it have in 2021?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

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This question will be judged by Tesla's global rank in the PA Consulting Group’s ranking of electric automakers, in which they factor strategy, battery technology, culture, supplier networks, partnerships and financial performance into an overall score.
Reference date: Jan. 31, 2022, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
● 1st
50.65 %
● 2nd
13.34 %
● 3rd
7.66 %
● 4th
11.31 %
● 5th
10.60 %
● 6th
1.53 %
● 7th
2.97 %
● Worse than 7th
1.91 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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Ex-post: The final result

PA Consulting was severely wrong, as predicted correctly by the crowd. The forecast plummetted immediately after trading start in 2018, with three years to go. And in fact, Tesla remained #1 with 936,000 cars sold in 2021. Ze Germans do not even make top 3.

The top EV brands in 2021, according to EV-Volumes: [4]

  1. Tesla - 936,172
  2. BYD - 593,878
  3. SAIC-GM-Wuling - 456,123
  4. Volkswagen - 319,735
  5. BMW - 276,037
  6. Mercedes-Benz - 228,144
  7. SAIC - 226,963
  8. Volvo - 189,115
  9. Audi - 171,371
  10. Hyundai - 159,343
  11. Kia - 158,134

Ex-ante: Are the Germans winning?

SpaceX - Falcon Heavy Demo Mission - Copyright: Tesla CC0By 2021, German carmakers will push Tesla from the throne as the world's number one electric carmaker, says PA Consulting Group's Head of Automotive, Thomas Göttle. Their key rationale is an expected onslaught of new electric models in the next three years.

Boldly, Göttle even forecasts that Elon Musk's company will lose its lead altogether and decline to just position #7 within only three years. At the same time, he expects Merzedes-Benz to ascend steeply from #5 to #1, possibly on the back of an interesting strategy focusing on Daimler's battery production capability. 

The future ranking

This will be the global ranking of electric car manufacturers according to the PA Consulting Group's report.

Rank 2019 2021 (?)
1 Tesla Daimler
2 Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi BMW
3 BMW Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi
4 Hyundai/Kia Volkswagen
5 Daimler Volvo
6 Volvo Toyota
7 Volkswagen Tesla

Source: PA Consulting Group

Sources

  1. The CO2 Emissions Challenge - PA Consulting Group
  2. German Electric Cars Could Catch Up With Tesla in Just a Few Years - Bloomberg, July 13, 2018
  3. Mercedes just revealed how it plans to conquer electric cars - Business Insider, January 30, 2018
  4. Global Plug-In Car Sales 6.5 Million In 2021 - InsideEVs.com, February 2, 2022

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Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. David Reckner 23,598.86
2. Paul Moffat 21,364.64
3. 里平 Liu 21,078.55
4. Zainon Mat Yudin 21,070.40
5. Hubertus Hofkirchner 13,959.53
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