Will Joe Biden be a good President, and why?

Follow |   71
Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term
Tradinginterface-Tutorial **close

**Antworten handeln

**Investieren Sie Ihre Credits gemäß Ihrer Einschätzung

  • {{ item.msg }}
**Antworten **Kurs (%) **Dafür **Dagegen **Kurslimit **Mögl. Gewinn **Investiert **Aktion
{{ answer.share_price | number:2 }} {{ answer.portfolio.num_shares | number:2 }} {{ answer.invested | number:2 }}
**Handelslimit für diese Frage {{ portfolio.free_credits_question | number:2 }} **Credits
  • **Investiert {{ portfolio.invested | number:2 }}
  • **Bewertung {{ portfolio.asset_valuation | number:2 }}
  • **Gewinn/Verlust (%) {{ portfolio.total_profit_loss | number:2 | removeMinus | addPlus | addPlusMinus }} ({{ portfolio.total_profit_loss_relative | number:2 | removeMinus | addPlus | addPlusMinus }})
  1. You can invest up to 10,000 of your 100,000 credits in each question.
  2. Now please select the likeliest answer and invest.
    • 1,000 credits say "Maybe"
    • 5,000 is "Probably"
    • 10,000 signal "I am certain".
    Try it now!
  1. The more you buy, the higher the price. The next trader must pay even more. Go on.
  2. Click the green check-mark to execute the trade.
  1. Deal? The system confirms if your transaction has been executed.
  2. Here you can see how many Credits you have invested so far.
  3. You can cash out your Credits at any time with the orange "C"-Button.
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Joe Biden as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2025. If FiveThirtyEight has no approval rating statistic, the question will be judged by the ranking on Gallup's presidential job approval center. Should Joe Biden's presidency end early, it shall be the last rating prior to this. If Joe Biden's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (12-14) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (10-11) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-9 will be judged as "Average".
Reference date: Jan. 20, 2025, 24:00 EST

**Alle Antworten

**Widget einbetten **Wahrscheinlichkeit
{{ answer.share_price|number:2 }} %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Joe Biden - Copyright: Gage Skidmore | Wikimedia CommonsBackground

For objectivity, this question will be judged by Biden's approval rating after his 1st term, compared to that all prior presidents' since 1945. So, you must focus on the full four year term.

As always, please read the judgement rule § carefully before doing your trade or posting your argument.

Indicator of Presidential Quality

FivethirtyEight, Nate Silver

Nate Silver modelled a combined presidential approval rating from several research institutes, intending to eliminate partisan bias.

Rank President Start 538
1st Term
1 Dwight Eisenhower 1953 78.1
2 Ronald Reagan 1981 62.0
3 Bill Clinton 1993 58.8
4 John Kennedy 1961 58.2
5 Harry Truman 1945 57.2
6 George H.W. Bush 1989 54.7
7 Richard Nixon 1969 51.7
8 Gerald Ford 1974 51.5
9 Barack Obama 2009 51.4
10 George W. Bush 2001 50.1
11 Lyndon Johnson 1963 42.1
12 Donald Trump 2016 38.6
13 Jimmy Carter 1977 33.7

Source: 538

 Biden's 538 1st term approval rating will result in the following verbal ratings:

  • Very good: 58,8% or more
  • Good: 57.2% to 58.7%
  • Average: 51.5% to 57.1%
  • Bad: 42.2% to 51.4%
  • Very bad: 42.1% or less

Sources

  1. Gallup: Presidential Approval Ratings
  2. Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Center
  3. 538: How popular is Joe Biden?

Topics

Assign
  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. Christopher Stewart 9,218.19
2. Aaron Galbraith 7,206.21
3. Banned user 6,163.01
4. Konfuzius reloaded 5,171.97
5. Timothy Vercoe 5,045.80
Photo Alfie Meier
Question owner:
Alfie Meier
  • 6,644 Views
  • 57 Messages
  • 291 Transactions
This question has 71 followers
Countdown to final result Jan. 21, 2025, 00:00:00 2025/01/20 24:00 EST