When will the UK declare the Brexit?

Follow |   51
Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

The question shall be judged by the date on which an authorised representative of the United Kingdom formally notifies the European Council of the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU in accordance with § 50 of the Treaty of the European Union. The question shall be judged “No notification” if such has not occured latest by 31 December 2017.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2017, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
 Q1 2017
30.66 %
 Q2 2017
31.72 %
 Q3 2017
13.75 %
 Q4 2017
3.75 %
 No notification
20.09 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

The Forecasting Challenge

When will the Brexit happen? Will it happen at all? Will British politicians abide by the result of the referendum or will they ignore it?

Brexit background

Remainers - Copyright: Daily MailIn a national referendum on 23 June 2016, a majority of 51.9% of British citizens voted to withdraw from the European Union ("Brexit). An immediate second Brexit referendum was demanded by an online petition but swiftly ruled out by UK government. (2)

For more background: Wikipedia

Brexit timing considerations

As the next step, the UK government has to notify the European Council formally of the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU, as required by Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. (1)

It is uncertain if and when this notification will be realized. The UK's incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron stated that the withdrawal negotiations - thus the formal notification - will be the next Prime Minister's task. His successor will be determined at the UK Conservative Party leadership elections in October 2016. (3)

On 11 July 2016 David Cameron announced he will leave Downing Street 10 two days later. Home Secretary Theresa May will succeed him in Office. (5)

Final Settlement

Britain triggered article 50 on the 29th of March, for more information go here.

External sources

  1. The Treaty on European Union, Article 50 - Wikisource
  2. David Cameron rules out possibility of second EU referendum - The Independent, 27 June 2016
  3. EU says 'no need' for UK to send formal letter - The Independent, 26 June 2016
  4. Merkel rechnet fest mit Brexit - Tagesschau.de, 10 July 2016
  5. David Cameron to resign Wednesday as Theresa May to become British PM - CNN.com, 11 July 2016
  6. Pound falls as Theresa May indicates Brexit date - bbc.com, 30 October 2016
  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

Question owner:
Anonymous
  • 5,749 Views
  • 18 Messages
  • 172 Transactions
This question has 51 followers