When will U.S. house prices peak before the next crisis?

Follow |   132
Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
This question shall be judged by the time when the maximum level is reached by the S&P Case Shiller 10-Cities Composite House price index before a cumulative correction by 50 index points or more. As of 17 July 2018 the index was 223 points.
Reference date: July 17, 2018, 24:00 EDT

Answer options

Widget Price
● H2 2018
0.25 %
● H1 2019
0.29 %
● H2 2019
1.10 %
● 2020
20.63 %
● 2021 or later
77.72 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Background

A home is advertised for sale in Hampton Roads, Va., Jan. 3, 2017 - Copyright: U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Teresa J. Cleveland

From the perspective of the Austrian School of Economics, most measures after the financial crisis 2007/08 were more populist activism and badly deliberated gut-rections of politicians which lacked insight into - not to mention solutions for - its true causes which are essentially a dysfunctional system of tax incentives for debt making and well-intended but ill-advised government debt promotion schemes e.g. for sub-prime credit, leading to reckless borrowing and artificial asset price rises.

Case-Shiller Index

Recently, a key leading indicator of the last crisis, the Case-Schiller Index, reached again the level of 2007 which  signals danger. In simple language, the index shows how much the builder of a new house stands to make in the secondary house market. An index of 200 point effectively is a license to double your money. Question is: How long can such a systemic flaw last? What level can this disproportionate profit opportunity reach?

Here is also a link to a chart with the current index values.

July 2018 vs. November 2018

The left chart below shows the index value as of July 2018, still rising, and just reaching the 2006 hights.The next chart for November 2018 shows how the index now hovers at these same peak levels. History has just started to repeat itself.

Case-Shiller Index reaches 223 in July 2018 - Copyright: S&P / Screenshot Case-Shiller Index still peaking at 224 in November 2018 - Copyright: S&P / Screenshot

 

 

Topics

Assign
  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

USD 60
Total prize money
Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. Bernd Somitsch 81,017.29
2. FRIKA RISA SANJANI 65,367.92
3. Tyrell Glover 43,119.50
4. Sofi Miu 38,660.71
5. Patricia Broussard 33,240.86
Photo Hubertus Hofkirchner
Question owner:
Hubertus Hofkirchner
  • 5,350 Views
  • 54 Messages
  • 478 Transactions
This question has 132 followers