How liquid will Lightning Network be at the end of 2021?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

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The question will be judged by the total bitcoin denominated liquidity in Lightning Network as of 31 December 2021 24:00 UTC.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2021, 24:00 UTC

Answer options

Widget Price
● 500 BTC or less
4.77 %
● 500 - 800
7.88 %
● 800 - 1,000
3.68 %
● 1,000 - 2,000
22.40 %
● 2,000 - 5,000
52.35 %
● 5,000 - 10,000
7.45 %
● More than 10,000 BTC
1.45 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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Lightning Network Logo - Copyright: Oinman via Wikimedia: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bitcoin_lightning_logo.svgIn 2019, Christoph Bergmann predicted a capacity of 10,000 bitcoin by the end of 2020, which would have dramatically increases the transfer amounts. [1] But he was wrong, year-end Lightning Network capacity was only 1,056 bitcoin. Will Bergman be right at least by the end of 2021?

1ML shows Lightning Network statistics in real time.

Hubertus's comment:

The most fundamental news in 2020 saw the introduction of Lightning Pool [2], a marketplace where private users and businesses can lease liquidity for payment channels. The service has attracted 11 bitcoins since November. Question is: will this foster or reduce the need for liquidity in the network?

Sources:

  1. "15 Prognosen zum Kryptomarkt im Jahr 2020" - BitcoinBlog.de
  2. "Lightning Network’s New Liquidity Marketplace Attracts a Surprising Mix of Individuals" - Coindesk (19 Nov 2020).

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