• No questions for this search term

Industry health: Will the market research industry grow or shrink from 2016 to 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (net CAGR) of the tradítional global market research industry turnover as reported by the ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, the GMR reports the prior year's turnover.
    • Last: March 11, 2022, 02:55:02
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Substitution: Will the importance of Big Data rise or fall until 2020?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Big Data" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 18, 2017, 13:54:26
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Crowdsourcing: What percentage level of interest will Prediction Markets reach by 2020 compared to ...

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Prediction Markets" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 18, 2017, 14:01:22
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Research methods: Will online qualitative grow or shrink vs. online quantitative by 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the share of spend by research method as reported by the ESOMAR GMR 2020. The result shall be the percentage of online qualitative research within the total of online research methods (i.e. online quantitative and qualitative).
    • Last: March 11, 2022, 02:55:19
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017 at least on one day, and by how much?

  • Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage. Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".
    • Last: Dec. 31, 2017, 03:31:22
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    What will the exchange rate of US$ per Bitcoin be at the end of 2013?

  • The question will be judged by the weighted average of the last five ticks from active Bitcoin exchanges before the end of the year 2013 (US Pacific time).
    • Last: Jan. 8, 2014, 05:32:57
    • Settled
    USD 133.98

    Will income inequality increase in Europe in 2013?

  • Ratio between top and bottom 20% of income distribution. Judgement by data from Eurostat.
    • Last: April 20, 2016, 08:38:28
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    When will U.S. house prices peak before the next crisis?

  • This question shall be judged by the time when the maximum level is reached by the S&P Case Shiller 10-Cities Composite House price index before a cumulative correction by 50 index points or more. As of 17 July 2018 the index was 223 points.
    • Last: April 25, 2021, 23:04:39
    • Settled
    USD 60.00

    Will automation cause rising unemployment by 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the OECD average employment rate of workers with an education level below upper secondary, as shown by the OECD Data report for 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 30, 2022, 01:45:04
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    What price will the base model Google Glass retail for in USD?

  • At the time of the announcement of retail availability, the price (USD) of the lowest tier model available in the US will be used.
    • Last: Oct. 19, 2018, 02:52:08
    • Settled
    USD 5.00

    Will the Playstation 4 or the Xbox One sell more consoles worldwide by March 29th, 2014?

  • As determined by hardware sales numbers posted by VGChartz.com during the period starting October of 2013 through the week ending March 29th, 2014.
    • Last: March 27, 2014, 05:25:04
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Wird GILT die erforderliche Zahl an Unterstützungserklärungen für die Nationalratswahl 2019 erhalte...

  • Es gilt die von GILT bekanntgegebene Zahl rechtzeitig eingelangter Unterstützungserklärungen ("UE"). "Rechtzeitig" bedeutet so eingelangt, dass GILT die erforderlichen UE bis spätestens 2. August 2019 17:00 Uhr bei der jeweiligen Landeswahlbehörde abgeben kann. "Nein, nirgendwo" heisst dass GILT in keinem Bundesland die erforderliche Zahl an UE erhält "Nein, nicht überall" bedeutet, dass für ein oder mehr Bundesländer nicht genügend UE einlangen. "Knapp, aber doch" bedeutet, dass GILT spätestens am 2. August genügend UE melden kann. "Ja, locker" bedeutet dass GILT schon am 29. Juli überall genügend UE melden kann.
    • Last: Aug. 1, 2019, 06:59:39
    • Settled
    Invaluable

    Will the new Microsoft tablet dominate Android tablets?

  • Unit shipments in 2013 of tablets operating under Windows 8 and Android, respectively.
    • Last: March 2, 2014, 15:07:06
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    What will the court rule in the case of Oscar Pistorius, the Blade Runner, who shot and killed his ...

  • First trial result, before any appeals, after bail hearing. If convicted of multiple charges, the one carrying the highest prison term will be judged as the Final Answer.
    • Last: Oct. 23, 2014, 06:10:56
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

  • The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this. Here is to the source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average". Note: The Gallup source originally defined for this question's judgement could be biased and will not be used: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx
    • Last: Jan. 24, 2021, 11:15:47
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    What relationship will the UK and the EU agree after the Brexit?

  • If the UK notifies the EU of its intent to withdraw from the EU, the following subsequent outcomes are possible in accordance to the EU Treaties: 1. “European Economic Area” (EEA) means that the UK joins as a party to the Agreement on a European Economic Area (Norway model). 2. “Bilateral Agreements” means a set of bilateral agreements between UK and the EU (Switzerland model). 3. Withdraws means the UK withdraws its notification to withdraw from the EU within 2 years. 4. The EU may extend the withdrawal agreement negotiation period beyond 2 years. 5. The withdrawal may become effective 2 years after the Brexit notification without the UK and the EU reaching an agreement about a special relationship. If the UK does not notify the EU of its intent to withdraw within a reasonable period, the question shall be settled prematurely at the market prices prevalent before such notification becomes unrealistic.
    • Last: April 16, 2019, 16:37:37
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    Will current inflation be only transitory? What will US CPI be for 2022?

  • This question will settle with the precent change of the Consumer Price Index of the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics between end of 2021 and 2022.
    • Last: Jan. 17, 2023, 04:16:39
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the range of electric cars in 2015?

  • The independently verified number of miles of the best-selling electric car in the calendar year of 2015 at full charge under normal conditions. Ancilliary non-electric motors or similar are deemed irrelevant. "Best-selling" means new registrations in the United States.
    • Last: May 16, 2016, 12:47:55
    • Settled
    USD 15.00

    What will be bitcoin's dominance at year end 2021?

  • The question will be judged by bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalisation according to CoinMarketCap at year-end 2021 UTC. For reference, dominance was 70.5% at year-end 2020. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
    • Last: Dec. 31, 2021, 21:44:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the hashrate of bitcoin at the end of 2021?

  • The question will be judged with the 30-day average mining hashrate of bitcoin in million TH/s on 31st December 2021 as shown on Blockchain.com. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
    • Last: Dec. 30, 2021, 05:30:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00
    Confidential results hidden from view
    More