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Will the "Lockdown" quarantine policy of China in Q1 2020 turn out to be effective?

Settlement proposals

Please check if any final result proposed here has really happened. Is there a reliable source for this information? Is the proposed cut-off date before the time when the final result became certain beyond reasonable doubt? Did the trader proposing the final result refrain from cheating with quick last trades? If these checks are positive, please vote "Yes" for settlement else "No".
§ Judgement rule
The question will be judged at year end 2020: "Success", if the number of new deaths subsequent to China's declaration of victory on 10 March 2020 remains below the number of recorded deaths before that date. "Partially successful" if the number is exceeded but below the next level "Probably ineffective" if the numbers of deaths per 100.000 reach 50% of that in "Herd Immunisation"countries already in 2020. "Ineffective" if the numbers of deaths per 100.000 exceed that in "Herd Immunisation"countries already in 2020.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2020, 24:00 CET
  • Photo Hubertus Hofkirchner
    Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
    Proposed result 1 accepted on 2021/12/26 10:16:07

    Proposed result:
    Successful policy
    Trading cut-off:
    2020/12/31 18:00:00
    Interestingly, and in stark contrast to other countries with multiple lock-downs, the one lock-down in China was a "Successful Policy" according to the Prediki rule definition. As of 31 Dec 2020, China reported 4,788 Corona deaths to the WHO, on 10 March it was 3,158, an increase of 1,630 only. Quite unusual ... therefore I am putting this result proposal to debate and vote by investors. Data source: WHO https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn ...more
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