Will US football stadiums reach pre-pandemic crowds before a COVID-19 vaccine, and when?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
The question will be judged by the month (or the period with such a month) when spectators in the first football stadium in the USA fill 50% of capacity. This question also ends if a vaccine becomes available for mass inoculation prior to reaching such level.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2022, 24:00 PST

Answer options

Widget Price
● Oct. - Dec. (Q4) 2020
9.68 %
● Jan. - Jun. (H1) 2021
9.68 %
● Jul. - Dec. (H2) 2021
25.31 %
● In 2022
17.04 %
● In 2023 or later
9.68 %
● Only after vaccination
28.59 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

Edit

Bill predicts in The Economist:

Gilette Stadium - Copyright: Bernard Gagnon | Wikimedia"I believe that humanity will beat this pandemic, but only when most of the population is vaccinated. Until then, life will not return to normal. [...] Sports will be played in basically empty stadiums." [1]

Prediki definition:

We generously define 'a basically empty stadium' as one only half full, i.e. at less than 50% of capacity. We look at football stadiums, as football is the most popular sport in the USA.

Bill invests:

  • 10,000 Cr in 'Only after vaccination'

NFL Attendance 2020

Comparing the 2020 NFL attendance numbers to the 2019 average, crowds are only about 30% of the previous years.[2]

Sources

[1] The Economist - "The world after covid-19. Bill Gates on how to fight future pandemics" by Bill Gates. 23 Apr. 2020

[2] ESPN - "NFL Attendance 2019 & 2020"

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Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. Bill Gates-Avatar 50,363.10
2. Onn Wei 17,433.37
3. Christopher Stewart 13,772.39
4. brian Lee -4,502.16
5. Scott Bugbee -10,000.00
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Bill Gates-Avatar
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