Will US airports see large crowds before a COVID-19 vaccine, and when?

Follow |   8
Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

The question will be judged by the month (or the period with such month) when US airports reach 80% of the average monthly number of passengers in the year before the pandemic. This question also ends if a vaccine becomes available for mass inoculation prior to reaching such level.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2022, 24:00 PST

Answer options

Widget Price
 Oct. - Dec. (Q4) 2020
8.28 %
 Jan. - Jun. (H1) 2021
27.37 %
 Jul. - Dec. (H2) 2021
26.04 %
 In 2022
8.28 %
 In 2023 or later
8.28 %
 Only after vaccination
21.71 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Bill predicts in The Economist:

Filled Airport - Copyright: Airport-Technology|Credit: Citizen59"I believe that humanity will beat this pandemic, but only when most of the population is vaccinated. Until then, life will not return to normal. [...] Airports won’t have large crowds." [1]

Prediki definition:

We define 'large crowds' as at least 80% of capacity prior to the pandemic. We also define in favour of Bill that such vaccine must just be available, irrespective of whether people choose to vaccinate.

Bill invests:

  • 10,000 Cr in 'Only after vaccination'

Monthly passengers on US airlines [2]

US passenger numbers by month - Copyright: United States Department of Transportation


Sources

[1] The Economist - "The world after covid-19. Bill Gates on how to fight future pandemics" by Bill Gates. 23 Apr. 2020

[2] Bureau of Transportation Statistic Releases - "September 2020 U.S. Airline Traffic Data"

  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

Question owner:
Bill Gates-Avatar
  • 1,974 Views
  • 1 Messages
  • 11 Transactions
This question has 8 followers