Objective

A key question for New Demarchy is which democratic variant produces the better decisions:

• election of professional politicians as long-term political representatives
• expertise-weighted sortition of citizens as atomistic decision makers

For the time being, before New Demarchy has achieved formal decision power, a proxy indicator is the direct comparison of the average error of politicians' and demarchic predictions.

Background

Professional politicians may announce their policy decisions concurrently with a statement of their expected desirable impact. There may be statements about undesirable effects too, and how these outweigh by the positive ones.

Irrespective of whether bad forecasts cause bad decisions, or ideological decisions are just being rationalised with bad forecasts: forecasts are empirically falsifiable in the sense of Austrian philosopher Karl Popper. They should be tracked and compared with final results to improve political accountability.

Professional politicians vs. demarchic decision makers

New Demarchy does not need professional politicians holding on to an office. All citizens appointed by expertise-weighted sortition continue their (non-political) profession once a decision is made.

All questions regarding the foundation decision:

• Pilot project
• Better forecasts
• Number of members