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Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

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<body><h2 id="h_objective">Objective</h2>
<p>A key question for New Demarchy is which democratic variant produces the better decisions:</p>
<ul>
<li>election of professional <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politician">politicians</a> as long-term political representatives</li>
<li>expertise-weighted <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortition">sortition</a> of citizens as atomistic decision makers</li>
</ul>
<p>For the time being, before New Demarchy has achieved formal decision power, a proxy indicator is the direct comparison of the average error of politicians' and demarchic predictions.</p>
<h2 id="h_background"><a class="wiki-img" href="/mediadb/image/b7e96bffdb55478294f61663bbafe3d5/"><img alt="President George W. Bush delivers remarks on the Fiscal Year 2008 budget  - Copyright: The White House" height="145" src="/media/displays/b7e96bffdb55478294f61663bbafe3d5/wiki_medium.png" width="202"/></a>Background</h2>
<p>Professional politicians may announce their policy decisions concurrently with a statement of their expected desirable impact. There may be statements about undesirable effects too, and how these outweigh by the positive ones.</p>
<p>Irrespective of whether bad forecasts cause bad decisions, or ideological decisions are just being rationalised with bad forecasts: forecasts are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability">empirically falsifiable</a> in the sense of Austrian philosopher <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper">Karl Popper</a>. They should be tracked and compared with final results to improve political accountability.</p>
<h2 id="h_professional-politicians-vs-demarchic">Professional politicians vs. demarchic decision makers</h2>
<p>New Demarchy does not need professional politicians holding on to an office. All citizens appointed by expertise-weighted sortition continue their (non-political) profession once a decision is made.</p>
<h2 id="h_all-questions-regarding-the-foundation">All questions regarding the foundation decision:</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.prediki.com/questions/When-will-New-Demarchy-complete-its-first-successful-pilot-project/">Pilot project</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.prediki.com/questions/Will-New-Demarchy-produce-better-policy-impact-forecasts-than-professional-politicians-already-in-2016/">Better forecasts</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.prediki.com/questions/How-many-members-will-New-Demarchy-have-in-the-end-of-2016/">Number of members</a></li>
</ul>
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