Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI).

Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.

Ordered answer scale

• 1. (14.29%) Worse (PI less than -5 %)
• 2. (14.29%) Equal (PI +/- 5 %)
• 3. (14.29%) Slightly better (PI +5 to +10 %)
• 4. Significantlty better (PI +10 to +20 %) (14.29%) Better (PI +10 to +20 %)
• 5. Materially better (PI +20 to +30 %) (14.29%) Significantly better (PI +20 to +30 %)
• 6. (14.29%) A lot better (PI +30 to +50 %)
• 7. Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50%) (14.29%) Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50 %)

Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI).

Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.

Ordered answer scale

• 1. (14.29%) Worse (PI less than -5 %)
• 2. (14.29%) Equal (PI +/- 5 %)
• 3. (14.29%) Slightly better (PI +5 to +10 %)
• 4. (14.29%) Significantlty better (PI +10 to +20 %)
• 5. (14.29%) Materially better (PI +20 to +30 %)
• 6. (14.29%) A lot better (PI +30 to +50 %)
• 7. (14.29%) Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50%)