When will U.S. house prices peak before the next crisis?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

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This question shall be judged by the time when the maximum level is reached by the S&P Case Shiller 10-Cities Composite House price index before a cumulative correction by 50 index points or more. As of 17 July 2018 the index was 223 points.
Reference date: July 17, 2018, 24:00 EDT

Answer options

Widget Price
● H2 2018
0.25 %
● H1 2019
0.29 %
● H2 2019
1.10 %
● 2020
20.63 %
● 2021 or later
77.72 %

Price trend

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Background

A home is advertised for sale in Hampton Roads, Va., Jan. 3, 2017 - Copyright: U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Teresa J. Cleveland

From the perspective of the Austrian School of Economics, most measures after the financial crisis 2007/08 were more populist activism and badly deliberated gut-rections of politicians which lacked insight into - not to mention solutions for - its true causes which are essentially a dysfunctional system of tax incentives for debt making and well-intended but ill-advised government debt promotion schemes e.g. for sub-prime credit, leading to reckless borrowing and artificial asset price rises.

Case-Shiller Index

Recently, a key leading indicator of the last crisis, the Case-Schiller Index, reached again the level of 2007 which  signals danger. In simple language, the index shows how much the builder of a new house stands to make in the secondary house market. An index of 200 point effectively is a license to double your money. Question is: How long can such a systemic flaw last? What level can this disproportionate profit opportunity reach?

Here is also a link to a chart with the current index values.

July 2018 vs. November 2018

The left chart below shows the index value as of July 2018, still rising, and just reaching the 2006 hights.The next chart for November 2018 shows how the index now hovers at these same peak levels. History has just started to repeat itself.

Case-Shiller Index reaches 223 in July 2018 - Copyright: S&P / Screenshot Case-Shiller Index still peaking at 224 in November 2018 - Copyright: S&P / Screenshot

 

 

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