What will be the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war of 2022?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

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The question will be judged by the closest realised one of the five scenarios defined in an article from April 2022: "Appraising the war in Ukraine and likely outcomes" as published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Reference date: Feb. 23, 2022, 24:00 EET

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Normandy Format Summit 2019 - Copyright: kremlin.ru (CC BY 4.0)Possible futures

Where is the Russo-Ukrainian War going? Five possible futures were mapped out by the Foreign Policy Research Institute in a report from April 2022:

  1. Russia defeats Ukraine. A Russian victory is defined by Ukraine accepting Russia’s maximalist demands.
  2. Ukraine defeats Russia. A Ukrainian victory is defined by a return to the status before the February 24 invasion, in terms of territory.
  3. Negotiated Settlement. Ukraine renounces NATO membership and Russia renounces a regime change in the Ukraine. Both sides agree to disagree about the status of the contested areas. 
  4. Russia declares victory and partly withdraws. Russia declares that it has achieved the goals of the "special military operation” and withdraw troops, except those in those areas it wishes to annex. 
  5. War of Attrition. Both countries continue to fight with a stabilizing front, if not to victory, then to avoid defeat, at least throughout 2025.

Sources

  1. Foreign Policy Research Institute: "Appraising the War in Ukraine and likely Outcomes" (April 2022)

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Countdown to final result Dec. 31, 2025, 17:00:00 2025/12/31 24:00 EET