Modification proposals - What percentage of Australian new car sales in 2015 will be cars with computerized automated parking and / or self driving capability?

Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 1 accepted on 2013/03/01 16:12:28

These are actually ordered answers. Therefore, I propose to change the question type so that the prediction is computed as the median, not as the most likely single answer. Plus I propose to clarify the range definitions in the answers in accordance to Prediki Regulations § 6.4 (see "Regulations") in site footer.
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These are actually ordered answers. Therefore, I propose to change the question type so that the prediction is computed as the median, not as the most likely single answer. Plus I propose to clarify the range definitions in the answers in accordance to Prediki Regulations § 6.4 (see "Regulations") in site footer.
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- 11 years ago
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  Looks good now. Still wondering if the definition here of self-driving car will hold up to innovation ...
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Question

What percentage of Australian new car sales in 2015 will be cars with computerized automated parking and / or self driving capability?

Judgement rule

The interdependently verified data on new car sales in 2015. "Automated parking" and "self-driving capability" means any feature being promoted as assisting the driver by having the cars computer make decisions about steering, braking and accelerating the vehicle independently of the driver. Does not include features not advertised as such, e.g traction control.

Question type

~~Unordered alternatives~~
Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~75% or more of new vehicles sales~~ (25.00%) More than 75% of new vehicles sales New colour

2. ~~51% - 74% of new vehicle sales~~ (25.00%) 50% - 75% of new vehicle sales New colour

3. ~~26% - 50% of new vehicle sales~~ (25.00%) 25% - 50% of new vehicle sales New colour

4. ~~Less than 25% of new vehicle sales~~ (25.00%) Up to 25% of new vehicle sales New colour

Time zone

Australia/Sydney

Reference date:

2015/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2016/01/04 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

100.00% Yes

0.00% No

100.00% Participation
Peter Carr

New question proposed accepted on 2013/02/28 10:21:13
- 11 years ago
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  Attention: Some percentages (e.g. from 25,001% to 25,999%) are actually undefined with these this answer definition. I assume that standard quartiles are intended, so will support and add this inerpretation in the answer wiki. Quick hint: Prediki Regulations § 6.4 gives a standard definition: "If a scaled question's answer option is a range, its upper boundary is included, while its lower boundary is excluded."
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Question

What percentage of Australian new car sales in 2015 will be cars with computerized automated parking and / or self driving capability?

Judgement rule

The interdependently verified data on new car sales in 2015. "Automated parking" and "self-driving capability" means any feature being promoted as assisting the driver by having the cars computer make decisions about steering, braking and accelerating the vehicle independently of the driver. Does not include features not advertised as such, e.g traction control.

Question type

Unordered alternatives

Answers

(25.00%) 75% or more of new vehicles sales

(25.00%) 51% - 74% of new vehicle sales

(25.00%) 26% - 50% of new vehicle sales

(25.00%) Less than 25% of new vehicle sales

Time zone

Australia/Sydney

Reference date:

2015/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2016/01/04 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
No support required

No voting required

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