How many seats will the AfD party win in the 2/23/2025 German federal elections (to elect the 21st Bundestag)?
Settlement proposals
Please check if any final result proposed here has really happened. Is there a reliable source for this information? Is the proposed cut-off date before the time when the final result became certain beyond reasonable doubt? Did the trader proposing the final result refrain from cheating with quick last trades? If these checks are positive, please vote "Yes" for settlement else "No".
§ Judgement rule
afD = Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany)
I will use major news sources to expire the market. If the election is not held on 2/23 and/or official and final results are not released in a timely matter than the "Other" outcome will occur.
There are 630 seats in the Bundestag.
Background:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_German_federal_election
https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/51394-first-yougov-mrp-model-of-the-2025-german-election-shows-gains-for-right
https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/monitor/6461-alternative-for-germany-could-make-a-major-breakthrough-in-the-federal-elections-on-february-23-in-which-christian-democratic-union-remains-the-favourite
https://www.abnamro.com/research/en/our-research/preview-german-elections-grand-coalition-most-likely-result
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election/will-afd-win-the-second-most-seats-in-the-next-german-election
https://polymarket.com/event/afd-of-vote-in-german-election?tid=1738530794446
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxafdpercent/afd-
Reference date:
Feb. 23, 2025, 10:00 EST
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