How effective will be the vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus?

Follow |   13
Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
The question shall be judged by the efficacy of the first vaccine approved by a public health authority in either the US, the European Union, Switzerland or the UK, on or before 31 December 2021
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2021, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
● No approval
12.15 %
● 0 - 20%
11.70 %
● 20 - 40%
14.76 %
● 40 - 60%
15.15 %
● 60 - 80%
25.65 %
● 80 - 100%
20.56 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

IMPORTANT!

IF YOU ARE NOT A MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL, EPIDEMOLOGIST OR QUANT ANALYST, PLEASE DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN THIS PREDICTION MARKET.
  If you want to help, feel free to invite medical professionals whom you know personally to contribute their efficacy prediction and reasoning to this prediction market.

Background of first SARS outbreak

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused 774 deaths in 32 countries in a single fall-to-spring period 2002–2003. Governments responded with travel restrictions. Effects on the global economy were significant.

SSevere acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus virion. - Copyright: Roper/Rehmix years later scientists reported in a meta study that they had not yet found an effective vaccine against SARS-CoV. [1]

Current status for SARS-CoV-2

Several players are currently preparing various vaccine platforms for animal testing and subsequent clinical trials. There  is no expert consensus which possible approach will be faster or more successful. Seperate prediction markets for these strategies may be necessary. Further, all these players lack capacity for late-stage clinical trials required by regulatory agencies and for manufacturing of the doses needed. The investment is expected to be several billion US dollars. [2]

Challenge

Will there be an effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 within two years for the first outbreak and how efficient will it be?

Sources

  1. Roper R, Rehm K. "SARS vaccines: where are we?" (2009)
  2. Amanat F, Krammer F."SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Status Report." Immunity, 06 April 2020

Topics

Assign
  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. zhijuan wu 43,467.08
2. Shiju John 1,375.29
3. Sabrine Poulson 690.07
4. Guy D. 0.00
5. camille rodriguez -339.40
Photo Hubertus Hofkirchner
Question owner:
Hubertus Hofkirchner
Moderator:
Helene Meier
Photo Helene Meier
  • 2,268 Views
  • 8 Messages
  • 25 Transactions
This question has 13 followers