Substitution: Will the importance of Big Data rise or fall until 2020?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Big Data" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
Reference date: Aug. 31, 2020, 24:00 CEST

Answer options

Widget Price
● Up to 0.5x
7.49 %
● 0.5 - 1x
8.59 %
● 1 - 2x
19.22 %
● 2 - 3x
22.72 %
● 3 - 4x
19.38 %
● 4 - 6x
3.25 %
● 6 - 10x
14.95 %
● More than 10x
4.36 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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The rise of big data

Big Data - Copyright: Doublecreations

While the market research industry recently seems to talk a lot about the impact which Big Data may have on the industry, we have yet to see a rigorous measure of its impact on the research industry.

This prediction question therefore sets down a first quantified peg: we will track and forecast the hype surrounding the buzzword using Google Trends.

Seen through this lens, "Market Research" experienced a steady decline in search frequency to about half the level of 2010. Meanwhile, "Big Data" experienced a steep S-curve between 2011 and 2014 and absolute interest in it has since flattened out, on a high level. Due to the continuing decrease in Market Research searches, Big Data now draws about three times more than Market Research.

How will the interest in the two categories evolve until 2020?

Google search activity charts

Market Research vs Big Data 2016 - Copyright: Prediki / Google Trend DataThese charts shows the relative search frequency of the terms "Market research" vs. "Big data" according to Google Trends. A ratio of 100 indicates daily peak search frequency, the chart shows monthly averages.

In 2016 these levels were 15% and 45% respectively, with interest in Big Data having grown steadily until peaking towards the end of the year at about three times higher than Market Research.

Market Research vs Big Data 2018 - Copyright: Prediki / Google Trend DataBy 2018 search traffic appears to have stabalised with no significant change in interest in either Big Data or Market Research.

So, has the Big Data hype of 2016 been just that: a mere hype?

Final result

Search traffic for "Big Data" has continued to decrease ever so slowly since 2018, compared to "Market Research". The ratio of "Big Data" searches closed on a temporary peak of 2.9x as of August 2020, recent average was around 2.5x. An interesting spike for "Market Research" has appeared in the past two years, always in the months of February and March, probably reflecting search demand for annual market data, pushing the search ratio well below 2x. Market Research vs Big Data August 2028 - Copyright: Prediki / Google Trend Data

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