Industry health: Will the market research industry grow or shrink from 2016 to 2020, and why?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
This prediction question shall be judged by the inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (net CAGR) of the tradítional global market research industry turnover as reported by the ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, the GMR reports the prior year's turnover.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2019, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
● Up to -5%
1.33 %
● -3 to -5%
1.10 %
● -1 to -3%
2.07 %
● -1 to 0%
2.71 %
● 0 to +1%
17.94 %
● +1 to +3%
50.31 %
● +3 to +5%
19.27 %
● More than +5%
5.22 %

Price trend

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Initial Background (GMR 2015)

Industry Health - Copyright: Fair Use

After several years of stagnation, the market research industry resumed growth in 2015, at +2.2% net of inflation. Notably, Europe (+2.8%) and North America (+3.1%) came in solid, within North America Canada grew +7.6%. Latin America shrank -7.8% on a US$ basis while growing +10.7 in local currency terms.

Nominal currency fluctuations and some reporting changes for the analytics sector leave significant room for interpretation of the industry's true underlying trend.

Update (GMR 2018)

In 2016 healthy growth for the industry continued at +2.3% net of inflation, however this slowed again in 2017 to just +1.0%.

Industry revenue

The following chart and table show the worldwide market research industry's total value and its growth over the last few years (in US$ million).

Market Research Industry Growth UPDATE - Copyright: Prediki / ESOMAR Data

Year Turnover Abs. Growth Net Growth
2010 $34,544 5.2% 2.8%
2011 $39,466 3.8% 0.4%
2012 $39,660 3.2% 0.7%
2013 $43,269 2.8% 0.7%
2014 $43,861 2.1% 0.1%
2015  $44,350  3.5%  2.2%
2016 $44,471 3.7% 2.3%
2017 $45,829 3.3% 1.0%
2020     ???

Sources

  1. ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2016 (GMR)

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