Industry health: Will the market research industry grow or shrink from 2016 to 2020, and why?

Follow |   51
Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
This prediction question shall be judged by the inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (net CAGR) of the tradítional global market research industry turnover as reported by the ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, the GMR reports the prior year's turnover.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2019, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
● Up to -5%
1.33 %
● -3 to -5%
1.10 %
● -1 to -3%
2.07 %
● -1 to 0%
2.71 %
● 0 to +1%
17.94 %
● +1 to +3%
50.31 %
● +3 to +5%
19.27 %
● More than +5%
5.22 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Note for new 'Predikians': Just follow the four task buttons on top. Prediki's tutorial explains each step of the game, please go through it carefully. Reactivate it here if needed.

Initial Background (GMR 2015)

Industry Health - Copyright: Fair Use

After several years of stagnation, the market research industry resumed growth in 2015, at +2.2% net of inflation. Notably, Europe (+2.8%) and North America (+3.1%) came in solid, within North America Canada grew +7.6%. Latin America shrank -7.8% on a US$ basis while growing +10.7 in local currency terms.

Nominal currency fluctuations and some reporting changes for the analytics sector leave significant room for interpretation of the industry's true underlying trend.

Update (GMR 2018)

In 2016 healthy growth for the industry continued at +2.3% net of inflation, however this slowed again in 2017 to just +1.0%.

Industry revenue

The following chart and table show the worldwide market research industry's total value and its growth over the last few years (in US$ million).

Market Research Industry Growth UPDATE - Copyright: Prediki / ESOMAR Data

Year Turnover Abs. Growth Net Growth
2010 $34,544 5.2% 2.8%
2011 $39,466 3.8% 0.4%
2012 $39,660 3.2% 0.7%
2013 $43,269 2.8% 0.7%
2014 $43,861 2.1% 0.1%
2015  $44,350  3.5%  2.2%
2016 $44,471 3.7% 2.3%
2017 $45,829 3.3% 1.0%
2020     ???

Sources

  1. ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2016 (GMR)

Topics

Assign
  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

Virtual Reality Headset Shark X4
and 9 more prizes
Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. Klaus Oberecker 35,337.19
2. Lucy Davison 26,567.44
3. David Bakken 16,800.39
4. Sjoerd Koornstra 12,177.83
5. Stein Monteiro 12,142.88
Photo Prediki Predictions
Question owner:
Prediki Predictions
  • 2,350 Views
  • 43 Messages
  • 127 Transactions
This question has 51 followers