Big vs. Small: What will be the combined market share of the top 5 market research firms in 2020?

This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
After reading the judgement rule, please click here.

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Incentivise Modify Final result

This prediction question shall be judged by the sum of the global market share of the 5 largest market research companies as reported by the GMR 2020. For the avoidance of doubt: the set of "largest" companies may change over the prediction horizon.

Reference date: Dec. 31, 2019, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price

● Up to 32%	4.08 %
● 32 - 34%	2.65 %
● 34 - 36%	12.31 %
● 36 - 38%	39.61 %
● 38 - 40%	12.79 %
● 40 - 42%	14.43 %
● 42 - 44%	3.12 %
● More than 44%	10.96 %

**Alle Antworten

**Widget einbetten **Wahrscheinlichkeit

{{ answer.share_price|number:2 }} %

Price trend

Transactions

Study the background information carefully.
Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Initial Background (GMR 2015)

In 2015, the Top 5 largest firms in the market research industry commanded 39% of the total market. They recovered +2% share from 2014 after losing -4% in 2013.

Their ranking within the group did not change but firms with more syndicated offerings held up better than those with more ad-hoc business. [1]

Notably, the bigger Top 25 group contracted by -0.9% in 2015. The 20 mid-size companies in that group seem sandwiched between the big players and the more flexible or innovative small firms.

Update (GMR 2018)

In 2016 the Top 5 firms lost -2% share as they dropped to 37% of the total market of which they recovered +1% in the 2017. They now stand at 38% with 2 years to go until 2020.

Industry Concentration

The following chart and table show the market shares of the five largest market research companies over the past five years.

Company	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2020
Nielsen	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%
Kantar	10%	8%	7%	8%	8%
IMS Health	6%	6%	7%	7%	8%
Ipsos	6%	5%	6%	4%	4%
GfK	5%	4%	5%	4%	4%
Total	41%	37%	39%	37%	38%	???

Sources

ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2016 (GMR)

Topics

Assign

The ESOMAR Global Market Research Report of 2020

Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!