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by Hubertus Hofkirchner -- Vienna, 09 Jan 2020
Prepare for the worst. Year end is high season for mountebank predictions. The set linked below triggers unbelieving head shaking, even more so as they are made by market researchers and possibly even curated for being the top of the cream (Lenny?).
(1) For example, the first researcher (hiding behind anonymity) predicts "project turn around times to shrink from 3 weeks to 3 days". Sadly, he remains vague on falsifiable criteria for a judgement on 31st December if the obviously magic year 2020 brought us this sudden miracle or not.
(2) "Our industry has been getting better at understanding the emotional engagement of a person with a brand, product, and advertising." Ok, market research neatly summarised, but no prediction yet. Here it comes: "That knowledge will expand and improve." Wow! Knowledge expanding. Finally, in 2020. R. Buckminster Fuller (Bucky), fellow Futurist of "Knowledge Doubling Curve" fame, will be happy to hear this surprise when turning in his grave.
(3) Artificial Intelligence will make "substantial advances" with "major steps taken to get closer to realising the full potential". Bravo! We normally only see such perfect vagueness from political orators in hot campaign times. PS: Prepare for November 2020, somebody predicted US elections.
(4) "Agility". Nice buzzword, never wrong. "Clients will seek more for less." Brilliant, if they had only done this in 2019!
But suddenly, I have to stop reading. Head explosion threat syndrome: The insightfulness of the insight industry is just too much to bear.
PS: Want an acid test for proper predictions? You need: An objectively measurable outcome definition, an exactly defined prediction horizon, and a complete answer space of possible futures. Either you can form it into a valid Prediki question or it's metaphysical rubbish.
PSPS: Here are some proper form prediction questions built from Christoph Bergmann's mostly well-formed predictions for the Crypto Markets in 2020.
Recommendation: Do NOT check out these predictions for the Market Research industry.
Top Insights & Analytics Leaders Share Their 2020 Predictions
