Regulations

Areas of regulation

1. Principles of Prediki
   1. Neutrality requires that all written information on Prediki is phrased and presented in a fair and unbiased way. (This relates to question titles, answer options, judgement rules, analysis articles, as well as topic titles and topic articles on Prediki.)
   2. Objectivity is ensured by the requirement that the final result of a question must always be a measurable or observable and possible event.
   3. Democracy means that on Prediki, differing opinions and interests can and shall be expressed. (This relates to Prediki's voting, trading, messaging, commenting and rating mechanisms.)
2. Registration
   1. Users should preferably register only once. Double registration is permissible but must be promptly notified to Prediki.
   2. A pen name (pseudonym) is acceptable but the use of real names is recommended to build one's expert status.
3. Trading
   1. Traders must not act in collusion, e.g. to manipulate market prices or to defraud incentive monies.
   2. It is strictly prohibited that a user trades in any single question using different registered identities.
4. Questions
   1. Uniqueness requires that no question be asked twice.
   2. A question's final result must always be observable and measurable.
   3. A new question requires a supporter to become actively tradable.
5. Judgement rules
   1. A judgement rule must be consistent with the question title.
   2. The determination of the final result must be specified clearly and without ambiguity.
   3. Ending reference dates expressed in short form are understood as the last possible point in time (e.g. 24:00 on a day, or 31 December in a year).
   4. Beginning reference dates expressed in short form are understood as the earliest possible point in time (e.g. 00:00 on a day, or 01 January in a year).
6. Answers
   1. The entirety of answers should cover all potential outcomes.
   2. Answers should be exclusive.
   3. The only exception is a "dead heat" (where two or more answers can eventuate concurrently). Preferably, a dead heat scenario should be covered by an explicit answer option.
   4. If a scaled question's answer option is a range of numbers, the higher number is deemed to be included the lower one is not.
7. Modification proposals
   1. Modifications should help clarify the question, but are not allowed to alter the question's substance.
   2. A modification proposal for a new question requires a supporter, a modification proposal to a traded question requires a vote.
8. Results
   1. A result must be empirically visible or measurable.
   2. A result proposal needs support before going to voting.
   3. Cut-off is when a result becomes public knowledge,
9. Topics
   1. A question should be assigned to only one topic.
   2. A topic should not be assigned to more parent topics than absolutely necessary.
10. Supporting
    1. The time window for support is 72 hours.
    2. Without support any proposal is declined.
    3. A proposal for a new question needs one supporter for admission to trading.
    4. A proposal for a modification or a result needs one supporter to commence voting.
11. Voting
    1. The time window for voting is 72 hours. Traders vote pro rata to their invested capital.
    2. A vote against a proposal must be explained with a written comment.
    3. If an absolute majority is reached before the time window ends, the proposal is accepted immediately.
    4. Upon time window expiry the proposal is accepted if a relative majority has voted for a proposal or if nobody voted during the time window and no newer proposal exists.
    5. Upon acceptance of a proposal, all other active proposals become obsolete.
12. Incentives
    1. An incentive becomes visible to other users only after it has been fully paid by the sponsor.
    2. After the start of the incentive period incentives become binding towards the users and may no longer be canceled.
13. Settlement
    1. The sponsor can elect if incentives shall settle with the final result or at current market prices by the end of the incentive period.
    2. A conditional question closes and its incentives settle at current market prices when it becomes certain beyond reasonable doubt that the condition cannot be met.
    3. The democratically determined final result of a question is irrevocable and binding.
    4. Trades after cut-off will be reversed upon settlement.