As soon as an Incentive takes effect, Prediki starts calculating the preliminary winnings of each trader. Though as long as the Incentive is not finally settled, these winnings are an unconfirmed estimation, calculated as follows:
Potential winnings
During the incentive period, the Incentive is apportioned pro rata to the elapsed time. If, for example, an Incentive of 200 Dollars is halfway expired, exactly 100 Dollars will be taken into account for the preliminary calculations.
Current Credit assessment
Prediki evaluates the positions of each trader using the current rates in regular intervals (of one hour at most). The difference between the current assessment (in Credits) and the initial investment is the preliminary Credit profit.
Preliminary real money allocation
Each trader is then apportioned a preliminary share of the incentive pro rata to his Credit profit. Traders with Credit losses don't receive any share of the incentive respectively.
Final allocation
Should the Incentive be settled with the final result, the Incentive will not be settled until the question's result is officially established. The preliminary assessments are then replaced by a final settlement. This "all or nothing" settlement calculates a rate of 100% for the correct answer and 0% for every other answer (a "dead heat" scenario being the only exception).