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Incentive settlement "with prediction"

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The incentive will be apportioned already at the end of the incentive period, i.e. even when the final result is not yet known.

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The obvious advantage of both immediate settlement methods is timely payout and thus increased motivation of participants. The longer the prediction time frame, the more relevant this timing aspect becomes.

Prediki provides two such methods for immediate settlement. However, participants' trading and predictive behaviour will be distinctly different than under the "classical" settlement method, i.e. with the final result:

  1. Dynamic incentive settlement -- Participants can only achieve trading profits if they are able convince others to follow their opinion and trades about the future. They should disclose their reasoning in the discussion or even contribute to the background article.
  2. Static incentive settlement (obsolete function) -- Participants can achieve profits it they can predict what the general sentiment will be at the end of the incentive period, incorporating all information publicly released or decisions publicly announced until then. This function is obsolete and not available to users any longer.